FIFA World Cup 2026 · Canada · Mexico · USA

Tournament Predictions

by Simon Parker

Predicted Champion
Spain

Every team is rated by two numbers — attack and defence — chosen by least-squares regression over international results from the past year, so that attack − opponent defence best matches the goals actually scored. Each predicted scoreline is that figure rounded and floored at zero. Games already played use their real score; everything else — including the entire knockout bracket — is predicted.

Knockout Bracket

Level knockout scores are settled on the underlying ratings (extra time / penalties). Dashed cards are games already played.

Round of 32
Germany1
Paraguay1
2026-06-29
France3
Sweden0
2026-06-30
South Africa0
Canada1
2026-06-28
Netherlands1
Morocco1
2026-06-29
Portugal2
Croatia1
2026-07-02
Spain3
Austria0
2026-07-02
USA2
Bosnia-Herzegovina0
2026-07-01
Belgium3
Senegal2
2026-07-01
Brazil2
Japan1
2026-06-29
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
2026-06-30
Mexico2
Ecuador0
2026-06-30
England2
DR Congo1
2026-07-01
Argentina3
Cape Verde2
2026-07-03
Australia1
Egypt1
2026-07-03
Switzerland2
Algeria0
2026-07-02
Colombia1
Ghana0
2026-07-03
Round of 16
Paraguay0
France1
2026-07-04
Canada0
Morocco3
2026-07-04
Portugal0
Spain1
2026-07-06
USA1
Belgium4
2026-07-06
Brazil1
Norway2
2026-07-05
Mexico2
England3
2026-07-05
Argentina3
Egypt2
2026-07-07
Switzerland0
Colombia0
2026-07-07
Quarter-Finals
France2
Morocco0
2026-07-09
Spain2
Belgium1
2026-07-10
Norway1
England2
2026-07-11
Argentina3
Switzerland1
2026-07-11
Semi-Finals
France0
Spain2
2026-07-14
England1
Argentina2
2026-07-15
Final
Spain1
Argentina0
2026-07-19

Third-place play-off (2026-07-18): France 4–6 England · 🥉 England

Group Stage

Top two — through Third — may qualify

Group A

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Mexico360 +69
South Africa323 -14
South Korea323 -13
Czechia326 -41
Mexico v South Africa 2–0 · FT
South Korea v Czechia 2–1 · FT
Czechia v South Africa 1–1 · FT
Mexico v South Korea 1–0 · FT
Mexico v Czechia 3–0 · FT
South Africa v South Korea 1–0 · FT

Group B

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Switzerland373 +47
Canada383 +54
Bosnia-Herzegovina356 -14
Qatar3210 -81
Canada v Bosnia-Herzegovina 1–1 · FT
Qatar v Switzerland 1–1 · FT
Switzerland v Bosnia-Herzegovina 4–1 · FT
Canada v Qatar 6–0 · FT
Canada v Switzerland 1–2 · FT
Bosnia-Herzegovina v Qatar 3–1 · FT

Group C

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Brazil371 +67
Morocco363 +37
Scotland314 -33
Haiti328 -60
Brazil v Morocco 1–1 · FT
Haiti v Scotland 0–1 · FT
Scotland v Morocco 0–1 · FT
Brazil v Haiti 3–0 · FT
Scotland v Brazil 0–3 · FT
Morocco v Haiti 4–2 · FT

Group D

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
USA384 +46
Australia322 +04
Paraguay324 -24
Turkiye335 -23
USA v Paraguay 4–1 · FT
Australia v Turkiye 2–0 · FT
USA v Australia 2–0 · FT
Turkiye v Paraguay 0–1 · FT
USA v Turkiye 2–3 · FT
Paraguay v Australia 0–0 · FT

Group E

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Germany3104 +66
Ivory Coast342 +26
Ecuador322 +04
Curacao319 -81
Germany v Curacao 7–1 · FT
Ivory Coast v Ecuador 1–0 · FT
Germany v Ivory Coast 2–1 · FT
Ecuador v Curacao 0–0 · FT
Curacao v Ivory Coast 0–2 · FT
Ecuador v Germany 2–1 · FT

Group F

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Netherlands3104 +67
Japan373 +45
Sweden377 +04
Tunisia3212 -100
Netherlands v Japan 2–2 · FT
Sweden v Tunisia 5–1 · FT
Netherlands v Sweden 5–1 · FT
Tunisia v Japan 0–4 · FT
Japan v Sweden 1–1 · FT
Tunisia v Netherlands 1–3 · FT

Group G

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Belgium362 +45
Egypt353 +25
Iran333 +03
New Zealand3410 -61
Belgium v Egypt 1–1 · FT
Iran v New Zealand 2–2 · FT
Belgium v Iran 0–0 · FT
New Zealand v Egypt 1–3 · FT
Egypt v Iran 1–1 · FT
New Zealand v Belgium 1–5 · FT

Group H

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Spain350 +57
Cape Verde322 +03
Uruguay334 -12
Saudi Arabia315 -42
Spain v Cape Verde 0–0 · FT
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay 1–1 · FT
Spain v Saudi Arabia 4–0 · FT
Uruguay v Cape Verde 2–2 · FT
Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 0–0 · FT
Uruguay v Spain 0–1 · FT

Group I

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
France3102 +89
Norway387 +16
Senegal386 +23
Iraq3112 -110
France v Senegal 3–1 · FT
Iraq v Norway 1–4 · FT
France v Iraq 3–0 · FT
Norway v Senegal 3–2 · FT
Norway v France 1–4 · FT
Senegal v Iraq 5–0 · FT

Group J

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Argentina381 +79
Austria366 +04
Algeria357 -24
Jordan338 -50
Argentina v Algeria 3–0 · FT
Austria v Jordan 3–1 · FT
Argentina v Austria 2–0 · FT
Jordan v Algeria 1–2 · FT
Algeria v Austria 3–3 · FT
Jordan v Argentina 1–3 · FT

Group K

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Colombia341 +37
Portugal361 +55
DR Congo343 +14
Uzbekistan3211 -90
Portugal v DR Congo 1–1 · FT
Uzbekistan v Colombia 1–3 · FT
Portugal v Uzbekistan 5–0 · FT
Colombia v DR Congo 1–0 · FT
Colombia v Portugal 0–0 · FT
DR Congo v Uzbekistan 3–1 · FT

Group L

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
England362 +47
Croatia355 +06
Ghana322 +04
Panama304 -40
England v Croatia 4–2 · FT
Ghana v Panama 1–0 · FT
England v Ghana 0–0 · FT
Panama v Croatia 0–1 · FT
Panama v England 0–2 · FT
Croatia v Ghana 2–1 · FT

Best Third-Placed Teams

The eight best third-placed teams join the group winners and runners-up in the Round of 32.

GrpTeamPldGDGFPtsStatus
KDR Congo3 +144 Qualified
FSweden3 +074 Qualified
EEcuador3 +024 Qualified
LGhana3 +024 Qualified
BBosnia-Herzegovina3 -154 Qualified
JAlgeria3 -254 Qualified
DParaguay3 -224 Qualified
ISenegal3 +283 Qualified
GIran3 +033 Out
ASouth Korea3 -123 Out
CScotland3 -313 Out
HUruguay3 -132 Out

Team Ratings

Attack and defence values fitted by least-squares regression. Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes less.

#TeamAttackDefence
1 Belgium 3.27 0.77
2 Germany 3.22 0.57
3 Norway 2.96 0.74
4 France 2.91 0.83
5 Brazil 2.86 0.94
6 Argentina 2.82 0.98
7 USA 2.74 0.49
8 England 2.67 0.75
9 Netherlands 2.67 0.68
10 Portugal 2.67 1.03
11 Senegal 2.59 0.45
12 Spain 2.52 1.57
13 Colombia 2.47 1.08
14 Turkiye 2.46 0.29
15 Switzerland 2.42 1.04
16 Austria 2.32 0.60
17 Japan 2.12 1.26
18 Mexico 2.11 1.03
19 Morocco 2.11 0.99
20 Scotland 2.02 0.77
21 Sweden 2.02 -0.19
22 Algeria 1.99 0.56
23 Croatia 1.97 0.40
24 Jordan 1.80 -0.19
25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.75 0.27
26 Ivory Coast 1.75 0.72
27 Canada 1.73 1.02
28 Iran 1.71 0.91
29 South Korea 1.69 0.46
30 Paraguay 1.66 1.01
31 Czechia 1.65 0.19
32 Australia 1.63 1.00
33 Tunisia 1.56 -0.09
34 Uzbekistan 1.55 0.07
35 New Zealand 1.53 -0.18
36 Cape Verde 1.51 0.15
37 DR Congo 1.44 0.82
38 Ecuador 1.44 1.36
39 Egypt 1.44 0.73
40 Haiti 1.38 0.10
41 South Africa 1.35 0.30
42 Curacao 1.32 -0.73
43 Uruguay 1.31 0.81
44 Saudi Arabia 1.28 0.06
45 Ghana 1.22 0.53
46 Panama 1.09 -0.11
47 Iraq 0.96 0.10
48 Qatar 0.86 -0.81