FIFA World Cup 2026 · Canada · Mexico · USA

Tournament Predictions

by Simon Parker

Predicted Champion
France

Every team is rated by two numbers — attack and defence — chosen by least-squares regression over international results from the past year, so that attack − opponent defence best matches the goals actually scored. Each predicted scoreline is that figure rounded and floored at zero. Games already played use their real score; everything else — including the entire knockout bracket — is predicted.

Knockout Bracket

Level knockout scores are settled on the underlying ratings (extra time / penalties). Dashed cards are games already played.

Round of 32
Germany3
Sweden2
2026-06-28
France2
Paraguay1
2026-06-29
South Africa0
Canada1
2026-06-28
Netherlands2
Morocco1
2026-06-29
Portugal3
Ghana0
2026-07-01
Spain2
Austria1
2026-07-02
USA2
Bosnia-Herzegovina2
2026-07-01
Belgium3
South Korea1
2026-07-01
Brazil2
Japan1
2026-06-29
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
2026-06-30
Mexico1
Ecuador0
2026-06-30
England2
Senegal2
2026-06-30
Argentina3
Cape Verde0
2026-07-02
Australia1
Egypt0
2026-07-03
Switzerland2
Iran1
2026-07-02
Colombia2
Croatia1
2026-07-03
Round of 16
Germany2
France2
2026-07-04
Canada1
Netherlands2
2026-07-04
Portugal2
Spain2
2026-07-06
USA2
Belgium3
2026-07-06
Brazil2
Norway2
2026-07-05
Mexico1
England1
2026-07-05
Argentina2
Australia0
2026-07-07
Switzerland2
Colombia2
2026-07-07
Quarter-Finals
France2
Netherlands2
2026-07-09
Portugal2
Belgium2
2026-07-10
Brazil2
England1
2026-07-11
Argentina2
Colombia2
2026-07-11
Semi-Finals
France2
Belgium2
2026-07-14
Brazil2
Argentina2
2026-07-15
Final
France2
Argentina2
2026-07-19

Third-place play-off (2026-07-18): Belgium 2–2 Brazil · 🥉 Belgium

Group Stage

Top two — through Third — may qualify

Group A

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Mexico360 +69
South Africa323 -14
South Korea323 -13
Czechia326 -41
Mexico v South Africa 2–0 · FT
South Korea v Czechia 2–1 · FT
Czechia v South Africa 1–1 · FT
Mexico v South Korea 1–0 · FT
Mexico v Czechia 3–0 · FT
South Africa v South Korea 1–0 · FT

Group B

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Switzerland373 +47
Canada383 +54
Bosnia-Herzegovina356 -14
Qatar3210 -81
Canada v Bosnia-Herzegovina 1–1 · FT
Qatar v Switzerland 1–1 · FT
Switzerland v Bosnia-Herzegovina 4–1 · FT
Canada v Qatar 6–0 · FT
Canada v Switzerland 1–2 · FT
Bosnia-Herzegovina v Qatar 3–1 · FT

Group C

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Brazil371 +67
Morocco363 +37
Scotland314 -33
Haiti328 -60
Brazil v Morocco 1–1 · FT
Haiti v Scotland 0–1 · FT
Scotland v Morocco 0–1 · FT
Brazil v Haiti 3–0 · FT
Scotland v Brazil 0–3 · FT
Morocco v Haiti 4–2 · FT

Group D

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
USA384 +46
Australia322 +04
Paraguay324 -24
Turkiye335 -23
USA v Paraguay 4–1 · FT
Australia v Turkiye 2–0 · FT
USA v Australia 2–0 · FT
Turkiye v Paraguay 0–1 · FT
USA v Turkiye 2–3 · FT
Paraguay v Australia 0–0 · FT

Group E

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Germany3104 +66
Ivory Coast342 +26
Ecuador322 +04
Curacao319 -81
Germany v Curacao 7–1 · FT
Ivory Coast v Ecuador 1–0 · FT
Germany v Ivory Coast 2–1 · FT
Ecuador v Curacao 0–0 · FT
Curacao v Ivory Coast 0–2 · FT
Ecuador v Germany 2–1 · FT

Group F

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Netherlands3104 +67
Japan373 +45
Sweden377 +04
Tunisia3212 -100
Netherlands v Japan 2–2 · FT
Sweden v Tunisia 5–1 · FT
Netherlands v Sweden 5–1 · FT
Tunisia v Japan 0–4 · FT
Japan v Sweden 1–1 · FT
Tunisia v Netherlands 1–3 · FT

Group G

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Belgium362 +45
Egypt353 +25
Iran333 +03
New Zealand3410 -61
Belgium v Egypt 1–1 · FT
Iran v New Zealand 2–2 · FT
Belgium v Iran 0–0 · FT
New Zealand v Egypt 1–3 · FT
Egypt v Iran 1–1 · FT
New Zealand v Belgium 1–5 · FT

Group H

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Spain350 +57
Cape Verde322 +03
Uruguay334 -12
Saudi Arabia315 -42
Spain v Cape Verde 0–0 · FT
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay 1–1 · FT
Spain v Saudi Arabia 4–0 · FT
Uruguay v Cape Verde 2–2 · FT
Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 0–0 · FT
Uruguay v Spain 0–1 · FT

Group I

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
France3102 +89
Norway387 +16
Senegal386 +23
Iraq3112 -110
France v Senegal 3–1 · FT
Iraq v Norway 1–4 · FT
France v Iraq 3–0 · FT
Norway v Senegal 3–2 · FT
Norway v France 1–4 · FT
Senegal v Iraq 5–0 · FT

Group J

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Argentina381 +79
Austria354 +16
Algeria336 -33
Jordan338 -50
Argentina v Algeria 3–0 · FT
Austria v Jordan 3–1 · FT
Argentina v Austria 2–0 · FT
Jordan v Algeria 1–2 · FT
Algeria v Austria 1–2
Jordan v Argentina 1–3

Group K

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
Colombia363 +37
Portugal383 +55
DR Congo323 -12
Uzbekistan329 -71
Portugal v DR Congo 1–1 · FT
Uzbekistan v Colombia 1–3 · FT
Portugal v Uzbekistan 5–0 · FT
Colombia v DR Congo 1–0 · FT
Colombia v Portugal 2–2
DR Congo v Uzbekistan 1–1

Group L

TeamPldGFGAGDPts
England362 +47
Ghana321 +15
Croatia345 -14
Panama304 -40
England v Croatia 4–2 · FT
Ghana v Panama 1–0 · FT
England v Ghana 0–0 · FT
Panama v Croatia 0–1 · FT
Panama v England 0–2
Croatia v Ghana 1–1

Best Third-Placed Teams

The eight best third-placed teams join the group winners and runners-up in the Round of 32.

GrpTeamPldGDGFPtsStatus
FSweden3 +074 Qualified
EEcuador3 +024 Qualified
BBosnia-Herzegovina3 -154 Qualified
LCroatia3 -144 Qualified
DParaguay3 -224 Qualified
ISenegal3 +283 Qualified
GIran3 +033 Qualified
ASouth Korea3 -123 Qualified
JAlgeria3 -333 Out
CScotland3 -313 Out
HUruguay3 -132 Out
KDR Congo3 -122 Out

Team Ratings

Attack and defence values fitted by least-squares regression. Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes less.

#TeamAttackDefence
1 Germany 3.32 0.58
2 Belgium 3.20 0.67
3 Norway 3.08 0.68
4 Portugal 2.97 0.82
5 Brazil 2.93 0.92
6 France 2.92 1.00
7 Colombia 2.86 0.78
8 Netherlands 2.76 0.66
9 Argentina 2.74 1.15
10 Senegal 2.58 0.43
11 Switzerland 2.58 0.99
12 USA 2.56 0.39
13 Spain 2.43 1.07
14 Turkiye 2.33 0.22
15 Austria 2.29 0.89
16 England 2.27 0.84
17 Japan 2.12 1.27
18 Sweden 2.12 -0.15
19 Morocco 2.09 0.94
20 Scotland 2.03 0.78
21 Algeria 1.98 0.62
22 Mexico 1.96 1.15
23 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.91 0.26
24 Croatia 1.88 0.41
25 Jordan 1.80 -0.16
26 Ivory Coast 1.77 0.70
27 Iran 1.74 0.87
28 Paraguay 1.74 0.77
29 South Korea 1.71 0.45
30 Czechia 1.69 0.20
31 Canada 1.68 1.13
32 Tunisia 1.58 -0.08
33 Australia 1.57 1.04
34 New Zealand 1.52 -0.19
35 Ecuador 1.50 1.45
36 Uzbekistan 1.46 0.29
37 Haiti 1.40 0.14
38 South Africa 1.38 0.28
39 Curacao 1.32 -0.72
40 Cape Verde 1.31 0.15
41 Egypt 1.31 0.76
42 Uruguay 1.30 0.70
43 DR Congo 1.27 0.89
44 Ghana 1.25 0.47
45 Panama 1.25 -0.09
46 Saudi Arabia 1.24 0.03
47 Iraq 0.93 0.10
48 Qatar 0.87 -0.78